Durand Line, Pakistan, India, Afghanistan – Donald Trump & Narendra Modi

Donald Trump is a well known figure. Narendra Modi less so. Trump is coming to India on Feb 24. Some folks believe this is only for photo op and to prop up each other’s political stature – as Trump is facing reelection and Modi is facing street protests.

However, some reports are surfacing on the real reason for the visit – which is Afghanistan.

I decided to write up what I think is happening … which is a follow up of events that started about 130 years ago, back in the 1890s. Russia was lead by Czar Alexander III, who was soon to die and Nicholas III was to ascend to the throne – the last Czar, who would be dethroned by the Communists in 1917.

But I am running ahead of the story. The year was 1893. Alexander III was still alive as the Czar of Russia. He wanted to expand his empire and started sending his soldiers south, towards Afghanistan.

Meanwhile, The British were busy consolidating their own empire and were already getting settled in India. Their control extended till the eastern Border of Afghanistan. As such, the British were actually eyeing up Afghanistan too, and were building up their own forces along the Afghan border.

The encroachment of Russian forces placed two major empires within striking distance across Afghanistan. The rivalry between the Russians and the British were called, those days, “The Great Game”. The game itself, I presume, involved empire building.

Back to Afghanistan. That tiny and thinly populated country, inhabited by a smorgasbord of various ethnic tribes, were ruled by a sort of King – called Emir in Afghanistan. He was Emir Abdur Rahman Khan. Khan was faced with two very powerful enemies simultaneously – Russians in the north and the British on the east. It was unlikely that he would be able to fight both of them off, at the same time.

The British had acquired their empire not so much by actual fighting, but by cleaver dealings, and pitching one king agains the other etc, by stealth rather than direct fighting. The British decided to have a meeting with the Emir of Afghanistan. They offered guarantee of non-aggression and peace, but in exchange, they demanded Afghanistan to hand over a large chunk of land to the empire of British India, almost half of Afghanistan.

The Emir balked. So the British offered what appeared to be a sweeter deal – a lease of part of Afghanistan, as a buffer and insurance, just in case Afghanistan fell to the Russians and Russia attacks British India, the fight would take place on Afghan land rather than on the border with British India. The lease would be for 99 years, at the end of which the British would return the land back to Afghanistan.

The 99 year lease idea has worked for the British on more than one occasion. Hong Kong too was leased for 99 years from the Chinese emperor in 1898, and handed over to Communist China in 1997.

Anyhow, the Afghan Emir fell for the scheme, just like the Chinese Emperor too fell for the Hong Kong lease a few years later. The British were good at it, I tell you.

Anyhow, there was a need to draw up this newfangled border where Afghanistan was to give up part of its land to the British Empire on lease. The Afghan Emir did have people that could draw maps and measure borders, but the British convinced them that their own civil servants expert in land survey are better. So, Mortimer Durand, a British diplomat of the Indian Civil Service, drew the border, taking more than what was agreed upon, but not in a way you or the Afghans would notice. The new line was called the Durand line, named after Mortimer Durand.

The Afghans managed to thwart the Russians at north, more because Alexander III died and Young Nicholas, still in his twenties, did not have the appetite to have a war in the southern mountains of Afghanistan – and would soon get embroiled in his own troubles with the Bolsheviks, or communists.

The whole scene changed in 99 years. The Czar had gone in 1917. Soviet Union, born then, was also gone by 1990. Also gone was British India. Afghanistan was a democratic nation, and there was no sign of an Emir.

To complicate matters, British India did not become only India. Muslim majority areas decided to secede and not live under Hindu majority. So in 1947 two parts separated from the rest when the British left. These two parts became Pakistan, east and west. West Pakistan was located between India and Afghanistan, and East Pakistan was where Bangladesh is.

A few decades down the line, in 1971, the two Pakistans had a fallout and a war. India helped the eastern half and forced the West Pakistani military to surrender to an Indian general, thus liberating East Pakistan and getting them independence. Independent Bangladesh was born.

So, by the time those 99 years got over – in 1992, democratic Afghanistan wanted their land to be returned back. But this time they had to ask Pakistan, which was holding the land. Pakistan told them to get lost.

Since then, Afghanistan has kept asking and Pakistan refusing. Durand Line remains till date.

To further complicate matters – The Durand Line actually goes across tribals lands of Pashtoon and Baloch people. Neither of the tribes were asked if they agree to their land being cut into two and part of it given to British India or later Pakistan. Neither of them agree to the partition and till date, do not consider that border to mean anything. They keep moving back and forth across the border to their kin on both sides of the line.

Even more complicated – the Baloch, most of whose land fell into todays Pakistan – hate the Pakistani people, and are asking, of all countries – India, to help them gain independence.

Also back in Afghanistan, the majority of their population is Pashtoon, yet a large chunk of Pshtoon land is located across the Durand Line in Pakistan.

Enter Soviet Union, Modern Afghanistan, USA, Trump and India.

Soviets in 1979 had landed in Afghanistan and for a while, established a communist regime there. USA in turn supported various Islamic terrorist groups to fight the Soviets. The Soviets got tired of fighting stubborn Afghans and left. But the terrorists did not wind down. They had Taliban and Al Qaeda operatives – as well as Osama Bin Laden lodged there. 9/11 happened, master minded by Bin Laden from Afghanistan. US forces invaded Afghanistan along with close allies.

So, USA wanted the Soviets to get entangled in Afghanistan and find it as difficult as the US found Vietnam. In fact Afghanistan was to be a Vietnam for the Soviets. But it turned out that the Soviets left early, and now the US forces, having invaded Afghanistan and established another democratic pro-west government, is unable to leave Afghanistan. Why? Because the elected Government appears perpetually too weak to fight the Islamic insurgents and prevent Taliban from regaining power. So, the US is stuck there, through the times of Bush junior and Obama. I have a feeling that neither Bush nor Obama actually wanted to leave Afghanistan, but getting some benefit out of their presence was proving to be tough.

Somebody had to take up the task of providing security for the Government, if the US was to pull out. Pakistan was out of question, since the Afghans hated them and would not agree. India was out of question because Pakistan would raise hell. As it is they have Indian forces on their east. They did not want to be surrounded by Indian forces also on their western border.

Anyhow, the US forces remained.

Enter Trump. He has no love lost with Pakistan. India kept becoming a bigger economy. India also had the manpower to counter China. China was slated to be USA’s main geopolitical rival in the coming decades. India and China were already gearing up to be sort of economic powerhouses and possible rivals in Asia. It would be prudent and in fact essential for the US to cultivate stronger ties with India in multiple theatres.

Trump wanted India to send soldiers for peace keeping in Afghanistan, and help replace the US forces. Trump wanted to bring his troops home wherever keeping those troops were unprofitable. And now, as his first term comes to a close, he wanted to hurry up and show that he was able to get his soldiers home from at least one of the military outposts. But for that, he needed India to agree to send their troops to Kabul.

India has balked at sending soldiers outside of their border. USA has been telling India that there is no way they can be a powerful nation unless they also step up with peace keeping and sending soldiers abroad to help friendly nations. India still balks.

Meanwhile, Afghanistan too wanted, for their own reasons, Indian government to send their peacekeeping forces to help Afghanistan protect itself, and to let the Americans go home. Afghanistan had send several government teams to discuss this with Delhi. And yet, India had demurred.

I understand that India is wary of getting bogged like Soviets in Afghanistan or Americans in Vietnam. They are searching for non-military ways they can contribute, without having boots on the ground in Afghanistan.

Anyhow, that is the main reason, I have reason to believe, that Trump is coming to India. To sweeten the offer, Trump is likely bringing trade deals, perhaps greater visa and work permits for Indians to go to USA, or perhaps better deals selling US warplanes and stuff to India, or something else, whatever would entice India to jump in.

Also new geopolitical alliances are forming – USA, Israel, India. India is already, I think, the biggest trading partner, at least in defence equipment, for Israel. There are multiple joint ventures signed and starting off between Israel and India. A lot of things are changing under the surface.

The story started when King George V was the emperor of Great Britain, and Czar Nicholas (III) was about to be the last Czar of Russia and one British Civil servant Mortimer Durand drew a jagged line along the mountains at the edge of the British Indian empire. The story has not ended yet, a hundred and thirty years down the line, and Donald Trump of the US and Narendra Modi of India are to play out their hands now.

The great game continues, although the players have changed.